The Prediction Markets

New York's 17th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$36K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Conley, 1+ pts 50.5%

Next is Conley, 3+ pts at 43%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Conley, 1+ pts
50.5%
Kalshi 50.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conley, 1+ pts
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Conley, 3+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conley, 3+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lawler, 3+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lawler, 3+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6-9%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Conley, 6+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conley, 6+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lawler, 6+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lawler, 6+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
18.6%
Polymarket 18.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
18.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lawler, 9+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lawler, 9+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Conley, 9+ pts
9.7%
Kalshi 9.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conley, 9+ pts
Last price
9.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$768
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 0-3%
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Conley, 12+ pts
5.9%
Kalshi 5.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conley, 12+ pts
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 12%+
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12%+
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$565
Trade this on Polymarket
Conley, 15+ pts
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conley, 15+ pts
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 9-12%
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$470
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3-6%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$366
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in, New York State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Conley, 1+ pts
  • Conley, 3+ pts
  • Democrat 3-6%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Conley, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 17th District margin of victory". Conley, 1+ pts leads at 50.5%. Next is Conley, 3+ pts at 43%. $36K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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