The Prediction Markets

New York's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$63K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

LaLota, 1+ pts 82%

Next is LaLota, 3+ pts at 53%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
LaLota, 1+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaLota, 1+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$294
Trade this on Kalshi
LaLota, 3+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaLota, 3+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
40.9%
Polymarket 40.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 72.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $138 (1.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
40.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
72.6¢
Sell Yes
9.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$138 (1.38x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
16.9%
Polymarket 16.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 33.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $298 (2.98x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
16.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
33.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$298 (2.98x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gallant, 3+ pts
5.6%
Kalshi 5.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallant, 3+ pts
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
LaLota, 6+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaLota, 6+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6%+
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
LaLota, 18+ pts
4.2%
Kalshi 4.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaLota, 18+ pts
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
LaLota, 15+ pts
3.6%
Kalshi 3.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaLota, 15+ pts
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Kalshi
Gallant, 6+ pts
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gallant, 6+ pts
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Kalshi
LaLota, 21+ pts
2.6%
Kalshi 2.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaLota, 21+ pts
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Trade this on Kalshi
LaLota, 9+ pts
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaLota, 9+ pts
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
LaLota, 12+ pts
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
LaLota, 12+ pts
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 18%+
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New York State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • LaLota, 1+ pts
  • LaLota, 3+ pts
  • Democrat 0-3%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list LaLota, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 1st District margin of victory". LaLota, 1+ pts leads at 82%. Next is LaLota, 3+ pts at 53%. $63K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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