The Prediction Markets

New York's 20th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Tonko, 17+ pts 92.7%

Next is Tonko, 14+ pts at 91.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tonko, 17+ pts
92.7%
Kalshi 92.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tonko, 17+ pts
Last price
92.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tonko, 14+ pts
91.7%
Kalshi 91.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tonko, 14+ pts
Last price
91.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
91.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tonko, 20+ pts
85.7%
Kalshi 85.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 91.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tonko, 20+ pts
Last price
85.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.4¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tonko, 23+ pts
74.5%
Kalshi 74.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tonko, 23+ pts
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tonko, 26+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tonko, 26+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Tonko, 29+ pts
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tonko, 29+ pts
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tonko, 32+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tonko, 32+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Tonko, 35+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tonko, 35+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Democrat 35-40%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tonko, 38+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tonko, 38+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40%+
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40%+
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$794
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$597
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-10%
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-10%
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New York State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tonko, 17+ pts
  • Tonko, 14+ pts
  • Tonko, 20+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Tonko, 17+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 20th District margin of victory". Tonko, 17+ pts leads at 92.7%. Next is Tonko, 14+ pts at 91.7%. $26K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets