The Prediction Markets

New York's 22nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Mannion, 5+ pts 90.6%

Next is Mannion, 8+ pts at 87%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Mannion, 5+ pts
90.6%
Kalshi 90.6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 97.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mannion, 5+ pts
Last price
90.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.5¢
Sell Yes
90.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Mannion, 8+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 97.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mannion, 8+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.3¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Kalshi
Mannion, 11+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 91.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mannion, 11+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.5¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mannion, 14+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mannion, 14+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mannion, 17+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mannion, 17+ pts
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
Mannion, 20+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mannion, 20+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Mannion, 23+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mannion, 23+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 15-20%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Mannion, 26+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mannion, 26+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Mannion, 29+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mannion, 29+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
12.2%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 23.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $418 (4.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$418 (4.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30%+
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$870
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$806
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mannion, 5+ pts
  • Mannion, 8+ pts
  • Mannion, 11+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Mannion, 5+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 22nd District margin of victory". Mannion, 5+ pts leads at 90.6%. Next is Mannion, 8+ pts at 87%. $24K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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