The Prediction Markets

New York's 24th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Tenney, 9+ pts 91.8%

Next is Tenney, 12+ pts at 84.6%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Tenney, 9+ pts
91.8%
Kalshi 91.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tenney, 9+ pts
Last price
91.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
97.6¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tenney, 12+ pts
84.6%
Kalshi 84.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 90.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tenney, 12+ pts
Last price
84.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90.1¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tenney, 15+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tenney, 15+ pts
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Tenney, 18+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tenney, 18+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Tenney, 21+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tenney, 21+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tenney, 24+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tenney, 24+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$511
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tenney, 27+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tenney, 27+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Republican 20-25%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tenney, 33+ pts
9.6%
Kalshi 9.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tenney, 33+ pts
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tenney, 30+ pts
8.2%
Kalshi 8.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tenney, 30+ pts
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$437
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35%+
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35%+
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tenney, 9+ pts
  • Tenney, 12+ pts
  • Tenney, 15+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Tenney, 9+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 24th District margin of victory". Tenney, 9+ pts leads at 91.8%. Next is Tenney, 12+ pts at 84.6%. $18K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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