The Prediction Markets

New York's 25th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Morelle, 19+ pts 95%

Next is Morelle, 16+ pts at 92.4%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Morelle, 19+ pts
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 99.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morelle, 19+ pts
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
90.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Morelle, 16+ pts
92.4%
Kalshi 92.4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morelle, 16+ pts
Last price
92.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
92.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Morelle, 22+ pts
91.7%
Kalshi 91.7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 97.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morelle, 22+ pts
Last price
91.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.3¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Morelle, 25+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morelle, 25+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Morelle, 28+ pts
71.5%
Kalshi 71.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morelle, 28+ pts
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Morelle, 31+ pts
56.5%
Kalshi 56.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morelle, 31+ pts
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Morelle, 34+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morelle, 34+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
35.7%
Polymarket 35.7%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 37.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
35.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37.1¢
Sell Yes
34.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
34.9%
Polymarket 34.9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 43.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $230 (2.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
34.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43.4¢
Sell Yes
26.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$230 (2.30x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Morelle, 37+ pts
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morelle, 37+ pts
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Morelle, 40+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morelle, 40+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$731
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45%+
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$889
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$574
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$434
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$456
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-15%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-15%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Morelle, 19+ pts
  • Morelle, 16+ pts
  • Morelle, 22+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Morelle, 19+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 25th District margin of victory". Morelle, 19+ pts leads at 95%. Next is Morelle, 16+ pts at 92.4%. $24K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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