The Prediction Markets

New York's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Garbarino, 1+ pts 82%

Next is Garbarino, 4+ pts at 69%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Garbarino, 1+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garbarino, 1+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$627
Trade this on Kalshi
Garbarino, 4+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garbarino, 4+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Garbarino, 7+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garbarino, 7+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Garbarino, 10+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garbarino, 10+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Garbarino, 13+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garbarino, 13+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$679
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Garbarino, 16+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garbarino, 16+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Halpin, 2+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Halpin, 2+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$873
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Republican 0-3%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Garbarino, 19+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garbarino, 19+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3%+
10.9%
Polymarket 10.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3%+
Last price
10.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18-21%
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18-21%
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$847
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
7.9%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $658 (6.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$658 (6.58x)
Volume
$360
Trade this on Polymarket
Garbarino, 22+ pts
4.3%
Kalshi 4.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garbarino, 22+ pts
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 21%+
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 21%+
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Garbarino, 1+ pts
  • Garbarino, 4+ pts
  • Garbarino, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Garbarino, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 2nd District margin of victory". Garbarino, 1+ pts leads at 82%. Next is Garbarino, 4+ pts at 69%. $18K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets