The Prediction Markets

New York's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Suozzi, 2+ pts 80%

Next is Suozzi, 5+ pts at 73%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Suozzi, 2+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Suozzi, 2+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Suozzi, 5+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Suozzi, 5+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$674
Trade this on Kalshi
Suozzi, 8+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Suozzi, 8+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Suozzi, 11+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Suozzi, 11+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 5-10%
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Suozzi, 14+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Suozzi, 14+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Kalshi
Suozzi, 17+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Suozzi, 17+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Suozzi, 20+ pts
9.4%
Kalshi 9.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Suozzi, 20+ pts
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Republican 0-5%
8.6%
Polymarket 8.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Suozzi, 23+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Suozzi, 23+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$806 (8.06x)
Volume
$715
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5%+
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5%+
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$798
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25%+
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25%+
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Suozzi, 2+ pts
  • Suozzi, 5+ pts
  • Suozzi, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Suozzi, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 3rd District margin of victory". Suozzi, 2+ pts leads at 80%. Next is Suozzi, 5+ pts at 73%. $26K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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