The Prediction Markets

New York's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$28K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Gillen, 3+ pts 86%

Next is Gillen, 6+ pts at 75%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gillen, 3+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 92.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gillen, 3+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
92.8¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Kalshi
Gillen, 6+ pts
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gillen, 6+ pts
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$859
Trade this on Kalshi
Gillen, 9+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gillen, 9+ pts
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gillen, 12+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gillen, 12+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gillen, 15+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gillen, 15+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 10-15%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gillen, 18+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gillen, 18+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 20-25%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gillen, 21+ pts
14.9%
Kalshi 14.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gillen, 21+ pts
Last price
14.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Democrat 5-10%
10.1%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
8.2%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,220 (12.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$922
Trade this on Polymarket
Gillen, 24+ pts
7.9%
Kalshi 7.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gillen, 24+ pts
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-5%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$504
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gillen, 3+ pts
  • Gillen, 6+ pts
  • Gillen, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Gillen, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 4th District margin of victory". Gillen, 3+ pts leads at 86%. Next is Gillen, 6+ pts at 75%. $28K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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