The Prediction Markets

New York's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Meng, 13+ pts 98.8%

Next is Meng, 16+ pts at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Meng, 13+ pts
98.8%
Kalshi 98.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 13+ pts
Last price
98.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$456
Trade this on Kalshi
Meng, 16+ pts
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 16+ pts
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
8.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Kalshi
Meng, 28+ pts
96.9%
Kalshi 96.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 28+ pts
Last price
96.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Meng, 25+ pts
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 25+ pts
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99.5¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$329
Trade this on Kalshi
Meng, 19+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 19+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
7.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Meng, 22+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 22+ pts
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
6.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
Meng, 10+ pts
49.9%
Kalshi 49.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 10+ pts
Last price
49.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Meng, 37+ pts
48.4%
Kalshi 48.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 37+ pts
Last price
48.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Meng, 40+ pts
48.4%
Kalshi 48.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 40+ pts
Last price
48.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35-40%
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
Democrat 25-30%
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 91.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
91.8¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
39.8%
Polymarket 39.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 78.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
39.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
78.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meng, 31+ pts
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 31+ pts
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$739
Trade this on Polymarket
Meng, 34+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meng, 34+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
9.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-15%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-15%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45%+
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45%+
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New York State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Meng, 13+ pts
  • Meng, 16+ pts
  • Meng, 28+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Meng, 13+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 6th District margin of victory". Meng, 13+ pts leads at 98.8%. Next is Meng, 16+ pts at 98%. $24K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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