The Prediction Markets

New York's 9th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Clarke, 38+ pts 92.5%

Next is Clarke, 41+ pts at 91.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Clarke, 38+ pts
92.5%
Kalshi 92.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarke, 38+ pts
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
92.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Clarke, 41+ pts
91.7%
Kalshi 91.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarke, 41+ pts
Last price
91.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98.6¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
Clarke, 44+ pts
90.9%
Kalshi 90.9%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarke, 44+ pts
Last price
90.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Clarke, 47+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarke, 47+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Kalshi
Clarke, 50+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarke, 50+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$239
Trade this on Kalshi
Clarke, 53+ pts
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarke, 53+ pts
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 55-60%
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55-60%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Clarke, 56+ pts
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarke, 56+ pts
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 50-55%
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Clarke, 59+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarke, 59+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Democrat 60-65%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 60-65%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 45-50%
7.7%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Clarke, 62+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clarke, 62+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 65%+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 65%+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$839
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-25%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-25%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$613
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-35%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-35%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$840
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Clarke, 38+ pts
  • Clarke, 41+ pts
  • Clarke, 44+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Clarke, 38+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New York's 9th District margin of victory". Clarke, 38+ pts leads at 92.5%. Next is Clarke, 41+ pts at 91.7%. $19K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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