The Prediction Markets

New Zealand general election winner?

Starts in 15 daysKickoff
Traded
$103K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

National Party 55.5%

Next is National Party at 55%. The venues differ most on Te Pati Maori (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 4.9%), a 4.8-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
National Party
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
National Party
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Polymarket
National Party
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
National
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Labour Party
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Labour
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Labour Party
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labour Party
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
ACT New Zealand
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
ACT
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Opportunity
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Opportunity
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Green Party
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
New Zealand First Party
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
NZ First
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Te Pati Maori
1.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 4.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Te Pāti Māori
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Te Pāti Māori
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.2¢.

New Zealand First Party
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Zealand First Party
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
ACT New Zealand
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
ACT New Zealand
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Green Party
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Green Party
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: elections.nz
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the New Zealand Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • National Party
  • National Party
  • Labour Party

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list National Party for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Zealand general election winner?". National Party leads at 55.5%. Next is National Party at 55%. $103K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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