The Prediction Markets

New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?

Starts in 16 daysKickoff
Traded
$67K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Christopher Luxon 53.3%

Next is Chris Hipkins at 37.3%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Christopher Luxon 53.3%Chris Hipkins 37.3%Chris Bishop 0.9%Debbie Ngarewa-Packer 0.9%Erica Stanford 0.9%10 others 6.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Christopher Luxon
53.3%
Polymarket 57.5%(53.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 58%(52.1% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Luxon
Last price
57.5%
Fair, margin removed
53.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Luxon
Last price
58%
Fair, margin removed
52.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 59¢.

Chris Hipkins
37.3%
Polymarket 40%(37.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 41%(36.9% fair)polled, 44s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Hipkins
Last price
40%
Fair, margin removed
37.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Hipkins
Last price
41%
Fair, margin removed
36.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 40¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 45¢.

Chris Bishop
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Bishop
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$871
Trade this on Kalshi
Erica Stanford
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erica Stanford
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$871
Trade this on Kalshi
Marama Davidson
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marama Davidson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$871
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Mitchell
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Mitchell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$871
Trade this on Kalshi
Qiulae Wong
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qiulae Wong
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$871
Trade this on Kalshi
Rawiri Waititi
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rawiri Waititi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$871
Trade this on Kalshi
Simeon Brown
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simeon Brown
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$871
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
David Seymour
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Seymour
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Seymour
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Chloe Swarbrick
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chlöe Swarbrick
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chlöe Swarbrick
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Winston Peters
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Winston Peters
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Winston Peters
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Nicola Willis
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicola Willis
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nicola Willis
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Carmel Sepuloni
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carmel Sepuloni
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
  • Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
  • If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Governor-General of New Zealand, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
Show full rule comparison
  • Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
  • Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
  • If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
  • Trading closes Nov 8, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Christopher Luxon
  • Chris Hipkins
  • Chris Bishop

Live prices for Christopher Luxon

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?". Christopher Luxon leads at 53.3%. Next is Chris Hipkins at 37.3%. $67K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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