The Prediction Markets

Next DeepSeek Pro released by...?

Closes
Oct 31, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
8 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

November 30 20%

Next is October 31 at 6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
November 30
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • November 30
  • October 31

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next DeepSeek Pro released by...?". November 30 leads at 20%. Next is October 31 at 6%. $26K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if DeepSeek's next Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of DeepSeek's core model series (currently the V-series), have a name or model identifier that includes "DeepSeek" and "Pro," and be a new model release designated as newer than DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, regardless of capitalization or naming convention, including subsequently dated builds, decimal version increases, or new generations. For example, a later dated build named in the same manner as DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, a decimal increase such as DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, or a new generation such as DeepSeek-V5-Pro would qualify, while side or specialized models, such as Janus-Pro or DeepSeek-OCR, or models which are not newer releases than DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, such as DeepSeek-V4-Flash or the existing DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813, will not qualify. A qualifying release must carry a new, distinct model identifier or date designation; updates published under an unchanged identifier will not qualify. If DeepSeek releases a single unified successor without tier naming, it will qualify if it replaces or serves DeepSeek's flagship endpoint or is positioned as DeepSeek's flagship model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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