The Prediction Markets

Next Fed rate cut?

Closes
Jan 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before 2029 82%

Next is Before July 2028 at 66%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Before 2029
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2029
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
Before July 2028
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before July 2028
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$701
Trade this on Kalshi
Before 2028
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2028
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before July 2027
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before July 2027
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Kalshi
Before 2027
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2027
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before 2029
  • Before July 2028
  • Before 2028

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Fed rate cut?". Before 2029 leads at 82%. Next is Before July 2028 at 66%. $3K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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