The Prediction Markets

Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round)

Closes
Apr 18, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$241K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Lula 73.5%

Next is Marine Le Pen at 47.9%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lula
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Le PenArb
47.9%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 88%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 85¢ nets 7710 bps before fees.

Jean-Luc MélenchonArb
27.6%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 10¢ and selling on Polymarket at 36¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

Flavio Bolsonaro
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Flavio Bolsonaro
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Polymarket
douard PhilippeArb
15.7%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 26.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 28¢ nets 2700 bps before fees.

Raphaël GlucksmannArb
8.8%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 14¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

David LisnardArb
6.7%
Polymarket 13.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.7¢
Sell Yes
10.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$637 (6.37x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10.6¢ nets 760 bps before fees.

Gabriel AttalArb
3%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$895
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Bruno Retailleau
1.5%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Sarah Knafo
1.4%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$515
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Jordan BardellaArb
1.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$850
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

François Hollande
1.2%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Xavier Bertrand
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dominique de Villepin
0.9%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$735
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Christine Lagarde
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$920
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
ric Zemmour
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$481
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Marine Tondelier
0.6%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

François Ruffin
0.6%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Sébastien Lecornu
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$962
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Marine Le Pen on Polymarket at 7.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 85¢ (7710 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lula
  • Marine Le Pen
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Lula for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next French presidential election: 1st place (1st round)". Lula leads at 73.5%. Next is Marine Le Pen at 47.9%. $241K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets