The Prediction Markets

Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)

Starts in 190 daysKickoff
Traded
$469K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Andrey Gyurov 95.9%

Next is Marine Le Pen at 51%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Andrey Gyurov
95.9%
Polymarket 95.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 97.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
95.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
97.4¢
Sell Yes
94.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Le Pen
51%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 11%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 14%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
37.1%
Polymarket 42%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 35.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 29%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

douard Philippe
32.3%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 29%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 25%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

David Lisnard
13.1%
Polymarket 14.4%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 11.6%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $781 (7.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
14.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
14.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$181K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
11.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12.8¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$781 (7.81x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Raphaël Glucksmann
11.6%
Polymarket 12.2%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 11%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 11%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
12.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Manuel Bompard
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Bompard
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Branco
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Branco
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gérald Darmanin
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gérald Darmanin
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yaël Braun-Pivet
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaël Braun-Pivet
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 41 more outcomes
François Asselineau
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Asselineau
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Retailleau
3.8%
Polymarket 6%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Kostadin Kostadinov
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Bardella
3.8%
Polymarket 6%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$850
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gabriel Attal
3.7%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.9%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$895
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bernard Cazeneuve
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Knafo
3.5%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
François Hollande
3.5%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

lisabeth Borne
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
lisabeth Borne
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sébastien Lecornu
3.4%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$962
Trade this on Polymarket
Fabien Roussel
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabien Roussel
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Bayrou
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Bayrou
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ségolène Royal
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ségolène Royal
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dominique de Villepin
3.1%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$735
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Clémence Guetté
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clémence Guetté
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carole Delga
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carole Delga
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Ruffin
2.3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

ric Zemmour
2.3%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Laurent Wauquiez
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laurent Wauquiez
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$921
Trade this on Polymarket
Clémentine Autain
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clémentine Autain
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mathilde Panot
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mathilde Panot
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michel Barnier
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michel Barnier
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xavier Bertrand
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jean Castex
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean Castex
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Valérie Pécresse
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valérie Pécresse
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Tondelier
1.2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 2 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Iliana Iotova
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iliana Iotova
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$718
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivier Faure
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Christine Lagarde
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$920
Trade this on Polymarket
Krum Zarkov
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Krum Zarkov
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Polymarket
Yanaki Stoilov
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yanaki Stoilov
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Polymarket
Delyan Peevski
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delyan Peevski
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$549
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosen Zhelyazkov
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Zhelyazkov
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$601
Trade this on Polymarket
Atanas Atanasov
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atanas Atanasov
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Polymarket
Blagomir Kotsev
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blagomir Kotsev
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Boyko Borissov
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boyko Borissov
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$462
Trade this on Polymarket
Nikolai Denkov
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolai Denkov
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Polymarket
Natalia Kiselova
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalia Kiselova
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosen Plevneliev
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Plevneliev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Polymarket
Vassil Terziev
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vassil Terziev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 2 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: interieur.gouv.fr
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Andrey Gyurov
  • Marine Le Pen
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Andrey Gyurov for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)". Andrey Gyurov leads at 95.9%. Next is Marine Le Pen at 51%. $469K has traded across 51 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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