The Prediction Markets

Next French presidential election: 3rd place (1st round)

Closes
Apr 18, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$79K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Kostadin Kostadinov 92.5%

Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 34.9%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Kostadin Kostadinov
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean-Luc MélenchonArb
34.9%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 36.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 32¢ and selling on Polymarket at 36¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

douard PhilippeArb
25.6%
Polymarket 28%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 26.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$880
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 20¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 700 bps before fees.

Raphaël Glucksmann
11.6%
Polymarket 11%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 15.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

David LisnardArb
7.7%
Polymarket 11.7%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
11.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12.9¢
Sell Yes
10.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$775 (7.75x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10.5¢ nets 450 bps before fees.

Marine Le PenArb
6.9%
Polymarket 11%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

Gabriel AttalArb
5.2%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 8%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$835
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 150 bps before fees.

Atanas Atanasov
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atanas Atanasov
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
Nikolai Denkov
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolai Denkov
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Vassil Terziev
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vassil Terziev
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 21 more outcomes
Krum Zarkov
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Krum Zarkov
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosen Plevneliev
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Plevneliev
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
Blagomir Kotsev
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blagomir Kotsev
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Polymarket
Yanaki Stoilov
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yanaki Stoilov
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosen Zhelyazkov
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Zhelyazkov
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$139
Trade this on Polymarket
Boyko Borissov
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boyko Borissov
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Polymarket
Iliana Iotova
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iliana Iotova
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
Natalia Kiselova
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalia Kiselova
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Delyan Peevski
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delyan Peevski
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrey Gyurov
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Xavier Bertrand
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bruno Retailleau
1.9%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.4¢.

François Hollande
1.6%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.9¢.

Jordan BardellaArb
1.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 3.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

ric Zemmour
1.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$481
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

François RuffinArb
1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

Dominique de VillepinArb
1%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 1.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$685
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

Marine TondelierArb
0.9%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$716
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

Sarah Knafo
0.8%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
Christine Lagarde
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$860
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sébastien Lecornu
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoPolymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Marine Le Pen on Kalshi at 2¢, sell on Polymarket at 10¢ (800 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kostadin Kostadinov
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • douard Philippe

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Kostadin Kostadinov for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next French presidential election: 3rd place (1st round)". Kostadin Kostadinov leads at 92.5%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 34.9%. $79K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets