The Prediction Markets

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Starts in 190 daysKickoff
Traded
$433K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Marine Le Pen 70.5%

Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 36.3%. The venues differ most on ric Zemmour (Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 1%), a 3.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marine Le PenArb
70.5%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 17¢ and selling on Polymarket at 88¢ nets 7100 bps before fees.

Jean-Luc MélenchonArb
36.3%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 35¢ and selling on Polymarket at 38¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

douard PhilippeArb
35.3%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$494
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 27¢ and selling on Polymarket at 36¢ nets 900 bps before fees.

David Lisnard
13.8%
Polymarket 14.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
14.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
14.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$181K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Raphaël GlucksmannArb
10.9%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
11.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11.1¢ nets 310 bps before fees.

Gabriel AttalArb
7.5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 420 bps before fees.

Bruno RetailleauArb
5%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5.8¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

François Hollande
4.9%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Jordan BardellaArb
4.8%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Dominique de VillepinArb
4.8%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Show 26 more outcomes
Sarah Knafo
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sébastien Lecornu
4.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Manuel Bompard
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Bompard
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Branco
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Branco
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yaël Braun-Pivet
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaël Braun-Pivet
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gérald Darmanin
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gérald Darmanin
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernard Cazeneuve
4%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

François Asselineau
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Asselineau
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
lisabeth Borne
3.9%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
lisabeth Borne
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
lisabeth Borne
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
François RuffinArb
3.3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3.5¢ nets 150 bps before fees.

Fabien Roussel
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabien Roussel
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Bayrou
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Bayrou
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
ric ZemmourArb
3.2%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4.2¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

Ségolène Royal
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ségolène Royal
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Clémence Guetté
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clémence Guetté
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carole Delga
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carole Delga
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Laurent Wauquiez
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laurent Wauquiez
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$921
Trade this on Polymarket
Clémentine Autain
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clémentine Autain
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mathilde Panot
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mathilde Panot
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivier Faure
1.8%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.8¢.

Marine Tondelier
1.7%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Michel Barnier
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michel Barnier
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xavier Bertrand
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Jean Castex
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean Castex
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Valérie Pécresse
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valérie Pécresse
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Marine Le Pen on Kalshi at 17¢, sell on Polymarket at 88¢ (7100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: interieur.gouv.fr
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marine Le Pen
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • douard Philippe

Live prices for Marine Le Pen

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?". Marine Le Pen leads at 70.5%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 36.3%. $433K has traded across 36 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 19, 2027.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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