The Prediction Markets

Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Closes
Oct 22, 2026, in 1 hour
Traded
$127K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
6 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

No release by October 31 95.2%

Next is October 27 at 1.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

No release by October 31 95.2%October 27 1.1%October 30 0.8%October 23 0.5%October 24 0.5%6 others 1.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
No release by October 31
95.2%
Polymarket 97.4%(95.2% fair)polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 97.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
No release by October 31
Last price
97.4%
Fair, margin removed
95.2%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
97.4¢
Sell Yes
97.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$90K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 27
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 27
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 30
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 30
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 23
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 23
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 24
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 24
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$378
Trade this on Polymarket
October 25
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 25
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$985
Trade this on Polymarket
October 26
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 26
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 28
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 28
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$860
Trade this on Polymarket
October 29
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 29
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$713
Trade this on Polymarket
October 22
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 22
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$819
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No release by October 31
  • October 27
  • October 30

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?". No release by October 31 leads at 95.2%. Next is October 27 at 1.1%. $127K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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