The Prediction Markets

Next Greek Parliamentary Election: Party Winner

Closes
Jul 26, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

ND 91.5%

Next is ELAS at 5.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

ND 91.5%ELAS 5.2%PASOK-KINAL 1.1%EL 0.6%SYRIZA 0.6%4 others 1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
ND
91.5%
Polymarket 92.5%(91.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
ND
Last price
92.5%
Fair, margin removed
91.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
ELAS
5.2%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
ELAS
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
PASOK-KINAL
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
PASOK-KINAL
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
EL
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
EL
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
SYRIZA
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
SYRIZA
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
KKE
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
KKE
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
ELPIDA
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
ELPIDA
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$920
Trade this on Polymarket
NIKI
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
NIKI
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$843
Trade this on Polymarket
PE
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
PE
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$899
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • ND
  • ELAS
  • PASOK-KINAL

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Greek Parliamentary Election: Party Winner". ND leads at 91.5%. Next is ELAS at 5.2%. $23K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 26, 2027.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Hellenic Parliament are scheduled to be held before July 25, 2027. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Hellenic Parliament as a result of the next Greek parliamentary election. If voting in the specified election does not occur or there continues to be ambiguity in the results as reported by the Greek government by December 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose abbreviation as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independent candidates and the formation of parliamentary groups will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Greek government. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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