The Prediction Markets

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

Closes
Mar 1, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$230K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before 2027 38%

Next is No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 37.8%. The venues differ most on Bezalel Smotrich (Polymarket 4.9%, Kalshi 10%), a 5.2-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before 2027
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before 2027
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
No Next Minister by Feb 28
37.8%
Polymarket 37.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $260 (2.60x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price
37.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38.5¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$260 (2.60x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Polymarket
Naftali BennettArb
12.8%
Polymarket 19.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
19.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 18.5¢ nets 1050 bps before fees.

Gideon Sa'ar
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gideon Sa'ar
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Avigdor LiebermanArb
11.7%
Polymarket 20.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
20.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 10¢ and selling on Polymarket at 20.3¢ nets 1030 bps before fees.

Shaul Meridor
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaul Meridor
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$680
Trade this on Kalshi
Bezalel SmotrichArb
8.7%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 350 bps before fees.

Yaron Zelekha
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yaron Zelekha
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yair LapidArb
7.5%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 19¢ nets 1620 bps before fees.

Ofer Winter
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ofer Winter
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 23 more outcomes
Ron Dermer
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ron Dermer
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gadi Eizenkot
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gadi Eizenkot
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$947
Trade this on Polymarket
Itamar Ben Gvir
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Itamar Ben Gvir
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel Katz
4.3%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Einat Wilf
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Einat Wilf
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Keren Terner Eyal
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keren Terner Eyal
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yossi Cohen
2%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoram Cohen
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yoram Cohen
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Eli Cohen
1.9%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Benjamin Netanyahu
1.4%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Yair Golan
1.3%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Amir Ohana
1.3%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Elazar Stern
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elazar Stern
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aryeh Deri
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aryeh Deri
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chili Tropper
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chili Tropper
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Chili Tropper
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gadi Eisenkot
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gadi Eisenkot
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Gadi Eisenkot
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Naama Lazimi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Naama Lazimi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nir Barkat
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nir Barkat
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yossi Cohen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yossi Cohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moshe Feiglin
0.8%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$724
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Benny Gantz
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benny Gantz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Benny Gantz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Yoaz Hendel
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yoaz Hendel
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Matan Kahana
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matan Kahana
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yair Lapid on Polymarket at 2.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 19¢ (1620 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before 2027
  • No Next Minister by Feb 28
  • Naftali Bennett

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Israeli Minister of Defense?". Before 2027 leads at 38%. Next is No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 37.8%. $230K has traded across 33 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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