The Prediction Markets

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

Closes
Mar 1, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$235K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

No Next Minister by Feb 28 38.5%

Next is Shaul Meridor at 9%. The venues differ most on Yariv Levin (Polymarket 4.1%, Kalshi 14%), a 9.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
No Next Minister by Feb 28
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Next Minister by Feb 28
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shaul Meridor
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaul Meridor
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$680
Trade this on Kalshi
Yariv LevinArb
8.8%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 14%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yariv Levin
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yariv Levin
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 13¢ nets 660 bps before fees.

Yaron Zelekha
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yaron Zelekha
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Naftali Bennett
7.5%
Kalshi 8%polled, 31s agoKalshi 6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Naftali Bennett
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Kalshi
Yair Lapid
7.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 26%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Lapid
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Kalshi
Avigdor Lieberman
7.3%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 31s agoKalshi 6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Avigdor Lieberman
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gideon Sa'arArb
7.2%
Polymarket 6%polled, 31s agoKalshi 3%polled, 31s agoKalshi 12.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gideon Sa’ar
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gideon Sa'ar
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Gideon Sa'ar
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Bezalel Smotrich
6.6%
Kalshi 10%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Bezalel Smotrich
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tally GotlivArb
6.5%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tally Gotliv
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tally Gotliv
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 6.5¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

Show 27 more outcomes
Gilad Kariv
5.6%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 31s agoKalshi 5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gilad Kariv
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gilad Kariv
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$960
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Ron Dermer
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ron Dermer
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Efrat Rayten
4.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoKalshi 6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Efrat Rayten
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Efrat Rayten
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Hili Tropper
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hili Tropper
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$551
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel Katz
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 31s agoKalshi 4%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Israel Katz
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
3.9%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 10%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Orit Farkash-Hacohen
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Amir Ohana
3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 3%polled, 31s agoKalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$899
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Amir Ohana
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Ofir Katz
3%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ofir Katz
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ofir Katz
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Oded Forer
3%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 31s agoKalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oded Forer
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oded Forer
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Eli Cohen
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 31s agoKalshi 2.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Eli Cohen
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Einat Wilf
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Einat Wilf
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Keren Terner Eyal
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keren Terner Eyal
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yossi Cohen
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yoram Cohen
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Simcha Rothman
1.7%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 31s agoKalshi 3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Simcha Rothman
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Simcha Rothman
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Benjamin Netanyahu
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yair Golan
1.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Yair Golan
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aryeh Deri
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aryeh Deri
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Benny Gantz
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benny Gantz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chili Tropper
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chili Tropper
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Chili Tropper
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Chili Tropper
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gadi Eisenkot
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gadi Eisenkot
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Gadi Eisenkot
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Karine Elharrar
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karine Elharrar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moshe Feiglin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moshe Feiglin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moshe Saada
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moshe Saada
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Naama Lazimi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Naama Lazimi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nir Barkat
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nir Barkat
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yossi Cohen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yossi Cohen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ayelet Shaked
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoKalshi 1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ayelet Shaked
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ayelet Shaked
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yariv Levin on Polymarket at 6.4¢, sell on Kalshi at 13¢ (660 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 27, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No Next Minister by Feb 28
  • Shaul Meridor
  • Yariv Levin

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list No Next Minister by Feb 28 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Israeli Minister of Justice?". No Next Minister by Feb 28 leads at 38.5%. Next is Shaul Meridor at 9%. $235K has traded across 37 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Justice will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Justice” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Justice are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Justice assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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