The Prediction Markets

Next James Bond actor?

Closed
Jun 30, 2026
Traded
$3.1M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 30, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
No Bond chosen
95.3%
Polymarket 97.3%(95.3% fair)polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 97.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Bond chosen
Last price
97.3%
Fair, margin removed
95.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
96.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$305K
Trade this on Polymarket
Callum Turner
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Callum Turner
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$162K
Trade this on Polymarket
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$164K
Trade this on Polymarket
Harris Dickinson
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harris Dickinson
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$224K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Norton
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Norton
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$193K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jacob Elordi
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacob Elordi
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$289K
Trade this on Polymarket
Placeholder 4
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Placeholder 4
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
Henry Cavill
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Henry Cavill
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$455K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jack Lowdon
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jack Lowdon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$152K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pierce Brosnan
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pierce Brosnan
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$253K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
Placeholder 5
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Placeholder 5
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Polymarket
Placeholder 6
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Placeholder 6
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul Mescal
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Mescal
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$273K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Hardy
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Hardy
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$140K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Holland
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3040 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$270K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No Bond chosen
  • Callum Turner
  • Aaron Taylor-Johnson

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Next James Bond actor?". No Bond chosen last traded at 95.3%. Next is Callum Turner at 1%. $3.1M has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 30, 2026.

This is a market on who will be the next actor to play James Bond in the upcoming film series.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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