Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Jack Lowden 36.9%
Next is No Bond chosen at 23.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Jack Lowden36.9%40%36.9% fair37.8¢ bid, 42.2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago42.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $237 (2.37x)Jack Lowden36.9%Polymarket 40%(36.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 42.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $237 (2.37x)
Jack Lowden
36.9%
40%
36.9% fair
37.8¢ bid, 42.2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
42.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $237 (2.37x)
Jack Lowden
36.9%
Polymarket 40%(36.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 42.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $237 (2.37x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jack Lowden
- Last price
- 40%
- Fair, margin removed
- 36.9%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 42.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 37.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $237 (2.37x)
- Volume
- $276K
No Bond chosen23.6%25.7%23.6% fair24.9¢ bid, 26.4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago26.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $379 (3.79x)No Bond chosen23.6%Polymarket 25.7%(23.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 26.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $379 (3.79x)
No Bond chosen
23.6%
25.7%
23.6% fair
24.9¢ bid, 26.4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
26.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $379 (3.79x)
No Bond chosen
23.6%
Polymarket 25.7%(23.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 26.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $379 (3.79x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- No Bond chosen
- Last price
- 25.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 23.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 26.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 24.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $379 (3.79x)
- Volume
- $594K
Callum Turner13.9%15.1%13.9% fair12.7¢ bid, 17.4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago17.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $575 (5.75x)Callum Turner13.9%Polymarket 15.1%(13.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 17.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Callum Turner
13.9%
15.1%
13.9% fair
12.7¢ bid, 17.4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
17.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Callum Turner
13.9%
Polymarket 15.1%(13.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 17.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $575 (5.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Callum Turner
- Last price
- 15.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 13.9%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 17.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 12.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $575 (5.75x)
- Volume
- $114K
Jacob Elordi8.5%9.2%8.5% fair8.1¢ bid, 10.3¢ askpolled, 4 h ago10.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $971 (9.71x)Jacob Elordi8.5%Polymarket 9.2%(8.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Jacob Elordi
8.5%
9.2%
8.5% fair
8.1¢ bid, 10.3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
10.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Jacob Elordi
8.5%
Polymarket 9.2%(8.5% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jacob Elordi
- Last price
- 9.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $971 (9.71x)
- Volume
- $39K
Jack O'ConnellPolymarket: “Josh O'Connor”4.1%4.4%2.9¢ bid, 5.9¢ askpolled, 4 h ago5.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)Jack O'Connell4.1%Polymarket 4.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Jack O'Connell
Polymarket: “Josh O'Connor”
4.1%
4.4%
2.9¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
5.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Jack O'Connell
4.1%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Josh O'Connor
- Last price
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,695 (16.9x)
- Volume
- $28K
Jack Barton3%3.2%2.6¢ bid, 3.8¢ askpolled, 4 h ago3.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)Jack Barton3%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Jack Barton
3%
3.2%
2.6¢ bid, 3.8¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
3.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Jack Barton
3%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jack Barton
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,632 (26.3x)
- Volume
- $69K
Tom Francis2.8%3.1%0.8¢ bid, 5.3¢ askpolled, 4 h ago5.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)Tom Francis2.8%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Tom Francis
2.8%
3.1%
0.8¢ bid, 5.3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
5.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Tom Francis
2.8%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tom Francis
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,887 (18.9x)
- Volume
- $28K
Richard Madden1.8%1.9%0.1¢ bid, 3.7¢ askpolled, 4 h ago3.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)Richard Madden1.8%Polymarket 1.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Richard Madden
1.8%
1.9%
0.1¢ bid, 3.7¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
3.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Richard Madden
1.8%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Richard Madden
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,703 (27.0x)
- Volume
- $24K
Paul Mescal1.3%1.4%0.7¢ bid, 2.1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago2.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)Paul Mescal1.3%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Paul Mescal
1.3%
1.4%
0.7¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
2.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Paul Mescal
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paul Mescal
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,762 (47.6x)
- Volume
- $23K
Jack O'Connell1.1%1.2%0.5¢ bid, 1.8¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)Jack O'Connell1.1%Polymarket 1.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Jack O'Connell
1.1%
1.2%
0.5¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Jack O'Connell
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jack O'Connell
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $42K
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
Harris Dickinson0.7%0.8%0.4¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Harris Dickinson0.7%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Harris Dickinson
0.7%
0.8%
0.4¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Harris Dickinson
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Harris Dickinson
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $32K
James Norton0.7%0.8%0.6¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)James Norton0.7%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
James Norton
0.7%
0.8%
0.6¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
James Norton
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- James Norton
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $33K
Henry Cavill0.6%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Henry Cavill0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Henry Cavill
0.6%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Henry Cavill
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Henry Cavill
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $22K
Aaron Taylor-Johnson0.3%0.4%0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Aaron Taylor-Johnson0.3%Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
0.3%
0.4%
0.3¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Aaron Taylor-Johnson
- Last price
- 0.4%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $35K
Theo James0.2%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)Theo James0.2%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Theo James
0.2%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Theo James
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Theo James
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $41K
Tom Hardy0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Tom Hardy0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Tom Hardy
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Tom Hardy
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tom Hardy
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $26K
Jonathan Bailey0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Jonathan Bailey0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Jonathan Bailey
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Jonathan Bailey
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jonathan Bailey
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $14K
Timothee Chalamet0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Timothee Chalamet0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Timothee Chalamet
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Timothee Chalamet
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Timothee Chalamet
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $18K
Tom Holland0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Tom Holland0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Tom Holland
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Tom Holland
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tom Holland
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $18K
Michael B Jordan0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Michael B Jordan0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Michael B Jordan
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Michael B Jordan
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michael B Jordan
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $12K
Nicholas Galitzine0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Nicholas Galitzine0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Nicholas Galitzine
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Nicholas Galitzine
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nicholas Galitzine
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $13K
Pierce Brosnan0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Pierce Brosnan0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Pierce Brosnan
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Pierce Brosnan
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pierce Brosnan
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $16K
Robert James-Collier0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Robert James-Collier0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Robert James-Collier
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Robert James-Collier
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Robert James-Collier
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $9K
Tom Blyth0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Tom Blyth0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Tom Blyth
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Tom Blyth
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tom Blyth
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $14K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Jack Lowden
- No Bond chosen
- Callum Turner
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Next James Bond actor?". Jack Lowden leads at 36.9%. Next is No Bond chosen at 23.6%. $1.5M has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More culture markets
See all culture markets- New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?March 31, 20275.5%$30.9M traded
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?Spider-Man: Brand New Day91%$17.8M traded
- Oscar for Best Picture?The Odyssey46%$9.8M traded
- Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · WinnerEzra Frech58%$4.9M traded
- GTA 6 release date?Before January 202898%$3.7M traded
- Who will be the next James Bond?Jack Lowden58%$2.6M traded