The Prediction Markets

Next James Bond announced by...?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$10K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

March 31, 2027 86%

Next is December 31, 2026 at 67%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
March 31, 2027
86%
Polymarket 86%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31, 2026
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31, 2026
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • March 31, 2027
  • December 31, 2026
  • October 31, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next James Bond announced by...?". March 31, 2027 leads at 86%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 67%. $10K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor in a starring role of a feature film by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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