The Prediction Markets

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.5M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

None before 2027 44.8%

Next is Netanyahu - Israel PM at 31.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

None before 2027 44.8%Netanyahu - Israel PM 31.5%Lecornu - France PM 3.8%Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea 3.7%Sánchez - Spanish PM 3.3%17 others 12.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
None before 2027
44.8%
Polymarket 47%(44.8% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
None before 2027
Last price
47%
Fair, margin removed
44.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$205K
Trade this on Polymarket
Netanyahu - Israel PM
31.5%
Polymarket 33%(31.5% fair)polled, 55s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Netanyahu - Israel PM
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$370K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lecornu - France PM
3.8%
Polymarket 4%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lecornu - France PM
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
3.7%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$66K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sánchez - Spanish PM
3.3%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sánchez - Spanish PM
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Polymarket
Macron - France President
2.2%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Macron - France President
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Abbas - President of Palestine
1.9%
Polymarket 2%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Abbas - President of Palestine
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
Trump - USA President
1.8%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trump - USA President
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
Merz - German Chancellor
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merz - German Chancellor
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 12 more outcomes
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
0.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Polymarket
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Putin - Russia President
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Putin - Russia President
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
al-Sharaa - Syria President
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
al-Sharaa - Syria President
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Polymarket
Milei - Argentina President
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Milei - Argentina President
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Albanese - Australia PM
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Albanese - Australia PM
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Newsom - California Governor
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Newsom - California Governor
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Takaichi - Japan PM
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Takaichi - Japan PM
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$45K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 55s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$37K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • None before 2027
  • Netanyahu - Israel PM
  • Lecornu - France PM

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next leader out of power before 2027?". None before 2027 leads at 44.8%. Next is Netanyahu - Israel PM at 31.5%. $1.5M has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets