The Prediction Markets

Next Premier of New South Wales

Closes
Mar 28, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Chris Minns 45.1%

Next is Rose Jackson at 21.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Chris Minns 45.1%Rose Jackson 21.5%Kellie Sloane 13.3%Gurmesh Singh 4.9%Mark Speakman 4.5%6 others 10.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Chris Minns
45.1%
Polymarket 54.5%(45.1% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chris Minns
Last price
54.5%
Fair, margin removed
45.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rose Jackson
21.5%
Polymarket 25.9%(21.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 34.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $287 (2.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rose Jackson
Last price
25.9%
Fair, margin removed
21.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34.9¢
Sell Yes
16.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$287 (2.87x)
Volume
$566
Trade this on Polymarket
Kellie Sloane
13.3%
Polymarket 16%(13.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kellie Sloane
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
13.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gurmesh Singh
4.9%
Polymarket 5.9%(4.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gurmesh Singh
Last price
5.9%
Fair, margin removed
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Speakman
4.5%
Polymarket 5.5%(4.5% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Speakman
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$852
Trade this on Polymarket
Ryan Park
3.4%
Polymarket 4.1%(3.4% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Park
Last price
4.1%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Newman
3.3%
Polymarket 4%(3.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Newman
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Prue Car
2.9%
Polymarket 3.6%(2.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prue Car
Last price
3.6%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Mookhey
0.9%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Mookhey
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Polymarket
Alister Henskens
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alister Henskens
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Polymarket
Penny Sharpe
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penny Sharpe
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: nsw.gov.au

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Chris Minns
  • Rose Jackson
  • Kellie Sloane

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Premier of New South Wales". Chris Minns leads at 45.1%. Next is Rose Jackson at 21.5%. $7K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 28, 2027.

The 2027 New South Wales state election is currently scheduled to be held on 27 March 2027 to elect members of the 59th Parliament of New South Wales. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of New South Wales as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New South Wales; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets