The Prediction Markets

Next Premier of Victoria

Starts in 36 daysKickoff
Traded
$32K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Jess Wilson 61.6%

Next is Ben Carroll at 11.7%. The venues differ most on Warren Pickering (Polymarket 5.5%, Kalshi 3%), a 2.5-point gap.

Jess Wilson 61.6%Ben Carroll 11.7%Sonya Kilkenny 9.7%David Southwick 6.1%Danny O'Brien 4.3%8 others 6.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Jess Wilson
61.6%
Polymarket 77.5%(61.7% fair)polled, 32s agoKalshi 76%(61.4% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jess Wilson
Last price
77.5%
Fair, margin removed
61.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jess Wilson
Last price
76%
Fair, margin removed
61.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 74¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 76¢.

Ben Carroll
11.7%
Polymarket 14.3%(11.4% fair)polled, 32s agoKalshi 15%(12.1% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 18.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $541 (5.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Carroll
Last price
14.3%
Fair, margin removed
11.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.5¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$541 (5.41x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Carroll
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
12.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18.5¢.

Sonya Kilkenny
9.7%
Polymarket 12.2%(9.7% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 23.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $420 (4.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sonya Kilkenny
Last price
12.2%
Fair, margin removed
9.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$420 (4.20x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
David Southwick
6.1%
Polymarket 7.7%(6.1% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Southwick
Last price
7.7%
Fair, margin removed
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Polymarket
Danny O'Brien
4.3%
Polymarket 5.6%(4.4% fair)polled, 32s agoKalshi 5%(4% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danny O'Brien
Last price
5.6%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Danny O'Brien
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Warren Pickering
3.9%
Polymarket 5.5%(4.4% fair)polled, 32s agoKalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Warren Pickering
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Warren Pickering
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Ellen Sandell
1%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 32s agoKalshi 3%(2.4% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ellen Sandell
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ellen Sandell
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$492
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

Gabrielle Williams
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabrielle Williams
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$368
Trade this on Polymarket
Emma Kealy
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emma Kealy
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jacinta Allan
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacinta Allan
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
Sam Groth
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Groth
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Newbury
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Newbury
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Dimopoulos
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Dimopoulos
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket
Brad Battin
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Battin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jaclyn Symes
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaclyn Symes
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
  • Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
  • If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: vic.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, Associated Press, Bloomberg News
Show full rule comparison
  • Deadlines differ: Kalshi needs the person to take office and meet constitutional requirements before its own date (e.g. Oct 27, 2027 for Israel); Polymarket waits for a swearing-in until its date (e.g. Dec 31, 2027), then resolves to 'Other'. A government formed between the two dates splits them.
  • Kalshi counts becoming Prime Minister 'as a result of government formation' after the election; Polymarket requires a formal swearing-in (some events: a confidence vote) and excludes interim or caretaker leaders. An incumbent staying on as caretaker is No on both until a new government forms.
  • If an early election is called, Polymarket resolves on that election; Kalshi's 'next election' wording does the same, but its stated-year events (e.g. 'after the 2026 election') may not.
  • Trading closes Nov 29, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jess Wilson
  • Ben Carroll
  • Sonya Kilkenny

Live prices for Jess Wilson

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Premier of Victoria". Jess Wilson leads at 61.6%. Next is Ben Carroll at 11.7%. $32K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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