The Prediction Markets

Next President of the National Rally in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$43K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Jordan Bardella 97.4%

Next is Jean-Philippe Tanguy at 0.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Jordan Bardella 97.4%Jean-Philippe Tanguy 0.6%Louis Aliot 0.5%David Rachline 0.4%Hélène Laporte 0.4%3 others 0.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Jordan Bardella
97.4%
Polymarket 99.4%(97.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
99.4%
Fair, margin removed
97.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
99.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean-Philippe Tanguy
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Philippe Tanguy
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Louis Aliot
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Louis Aliot
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Rachline
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Rachline
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hélène Laporte
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hélène Laporte
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Le Pen
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Laurent Jacobelli
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laurent Jacobelli
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sébastien Chenu
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Chenu
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jordan Bardella
  • Jean-Philippe Tanguy
  • Louis Aliot

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next President of the National Rally in 2026?". Jordan Bardella leads at 97.4%. Next is Jean-Philippe Tanguy at 0.6%. $43K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

The National Rally’s 2026 Congress is scheduled for October 24–25, 2026 in Orléans, where the results of the election for party president are expected to be announced. This market will resolve to the individual who is officially announced as President of the National Rally following the National Rally’s 2026 Congress. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially elected, reelected, or otherwise announced by the National Rally as President of the National Rally following the 2026 Congress. If no such President of the National Rally is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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