The Prediction Markets

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Closes
Dec 31, 2028, in 27 months
Traded
$96K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Giorgia Meloni 50.6%

Next is Giuseppe Conte at 17.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Giorgia Meloni 50.6%Giuseppe Conte 17.4%Elly Schlein 14.9%Roberto Vannacci 8.1%Silvia Salis 6.3%7 others 2.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Giorgia Meloni
50.6%
Polymarket 52.5%(50.6% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giorgia Meloni
Last price
52.5%
Fair, margin removed
50.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Giuseppe Conte
17.4%
Polymarket 18%(17.3% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giuseppe Conte
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
17.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elly Schlein
14.9%
Polymarket 15.5%(14.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elly Schlein
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Roberto Vannacci
8.1%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Roberto Vannacci
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
Silvia Salis
6.3%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Silvia Salis
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Matteo Renzi
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matteo Renzi
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mario Draghi
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mario Draghi
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Angelo Bonelli
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Angelo Bonelli
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Antonio Tajani
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Tajani
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carlo Calenda
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlo Calenda
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Matteo Salvini
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matteo Salvini
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guido Crosetto
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guido Crosetto
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Giorgia Meloni
  • Giuseppe Conte
  • Elly Schlein

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?". Giorgia Meloni leads at 50.6%. Next is Giuseppe Conte at 17.4%. $96K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2028.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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