The Prediction Markets

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Starts in 617 daysKickoff
Traded
$1.7M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Aleksandar Vučić 78.6%

Next is Ilija Srdanović at 14.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Aleksandar Vučić 78.6%Ilija Srdanović 14.5%Vladan Đokić 4.4%Ana Brnabić 0.8%Stefan Krkobabić 0.6%5 others 1.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Aleksandar Vučić
78.6%
Polymarket 67.9%(78.6% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 68.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $146 (1.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aleksandar Vučić
Last price
67.9%
Fair, margin removed
78.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
68.6¢
Sell Yes
67.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$146 (1.46x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Polymarket
Ilija Srdanović
14.5%
Polymarket 12.5%(14.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ilija Srdanović
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
14.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$280K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vladan Đokić
4.4%
Polymarket 3.8%(4.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladan Đokić
Last price
3.8%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ana Brnabić
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ana Brnabić
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stefan Krkobabić
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stefan Krkobabić
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dragan Đilas
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dragan Đilas
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivica Dačić
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivica Dačić
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Branimir Jovanović
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Branimir Jovanović
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miloš Vučević
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miloš Vučević
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
uro Macut
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
uro Macut
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Aleksandar Vučić
  • Ilija Srdanović
  • Vladan Đokić

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Prime Minister of Serbia?". Aleksandar Vučić leads at 78.6%. Next is Ilija Srdanović at 14.5%. $1.7M has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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