The Prediction Markets

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

FinalKickoff
Traded
$9.6M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 14, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 24 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Magdalena Andersson
74.8%
Polymarket 75.5%(74.8% fair)polled, 583 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Magdalena Andersson
Last price
75.5%
Fair, margin removed
74.8%
As of
Polled 24 d ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Ulf Kristersson
18.8%
Polymarket 19%polled, 583 h agoBest Yes 19.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $524 (5.24x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ulf Kristersson
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 24 d ago
Buy Yes
19.1¢
Sell Yes
18.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$524 (5.24x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Ebba Busch
3.8%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 583 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ebba Busch
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 24 d ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$886K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist
2.2%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 583 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 24 d ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$471K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jimmie Åkesson
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 583 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jimmie Åkesson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 24 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Amanda Lind
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 583 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Lind
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 24 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$135K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anna-Karin Hatt
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 583 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anna-Karin Hatt
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 24 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$310K
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Helldén
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 583 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Helldén
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 24 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$338K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nooshi Dadgostar
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 583 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nooshi Dadgostar
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 24 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Simona Mohamsson
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 583 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Simona Mohamsson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 24 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$368K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Magdalena Andersson
  • Ulf Kristersson
  • Ebba Busch

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Next Prime Minister of Sweden". Magdalena Andersson last traded at 74.8%. Next is Ulf Kristersson at 18.8%. $9.6M has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Sep 13, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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