The Prediction Markets

Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner

Starts in 191 daysKickoff
Traded
$130K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Student-backed candidate 53%

Next is SNS-backed candidate at 40%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Student-backed candidate
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Student-backed candidate
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
SNS-backed candidate
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
SNS-backed candidate
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vladan Petrov
21.2%
Polymarket 21.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 21.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $461 (4.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladan Petrov
Last price
21.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.7¢
Sell Yes
20.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$461 (4.61x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miloš Vučević
16.8%
Polymarket 16.8%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 17.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $565 (5.65x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miloš Vučević
Last price
16.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.7¢
Sell Yes
15.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$565 (5.65x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vladan Đokić
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vladan Đokić
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ana Brnabić
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ana Brnabić
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
uro Macut
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
uro Macut
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivica Dačić
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivica Dačić
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zdravko Ponoš
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zdravko Ponoš
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miloš Parandilović
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miloš Parandilović
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Miroslav Aleksić
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miroslav Aleksić
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
Srđan Milivojević
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Srđan Milivojević
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Polymarket
Aleksandar Vučić
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aleksandar Vučić
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Savo Manojlović
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Savo Manojlović
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Biljana Đorđević
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Biljana Đorđević
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket
Branimir Nestorović
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Branimir Nestorović
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dragan Đilas
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dragan Đilas
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$881
Trade this on Polymarket
Miloš Jovanović
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miloš Jovanović
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vojislav Šešelj
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vojislav Šešelj
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: stat.gov.rs
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Republic Electoral Commission

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Student-backed candidate
  • SNS-backed candidate
  • Vladan Petrov

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Student-backed candidate for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner". Student-backed candidate leads at 53%. Next is SNS-backed candidate at 40%. $130K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 2, 2027.

The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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