The Prediction Markets

Next Token Sale on Coinbase by ___?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

December 31, 2026 17%

Next is November 30, 2026 at 9.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 31, 2026
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30, 2026
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30, 2026
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31, 2026
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31, 2026
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31, 2026
  • November 30, 2026
  • October 31, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Next Token Sale on Coinbase by ___?". December 31, 2026 leads at 17%. Next is November 30, 2026 at 9.5%. $20K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a qualifying Coinbase token sale request window goes live between the creation of this market and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, a Coinbase token sale request window must be live and actively accepting commitments. Qualifying sales must be hosted directly by Coinbase on coinbase.com/token-sales or any official successor page within the Coinbase app or website. Sales run on a project's own site via Sonar, Echo, or any Coinbase-powered white-label technology do not qualify, regardless of affiliation. Private sales, airdrops, standard exchange listings, and any sale without a dedicated public request window do not qualify. Sale announcements, previews, and waitlists do not constitute a live request window. A request window that opens and is subsequently cancelled, paused, or suspended still resolves to "Yes" — post-opening outcomes including cancellation, refunds, pauses, or failure to distribute tokens do not affect resolution. If a sale is announced but the request window never opens, or a token is listed directly without a request window, this market resolves to "No". The resolution source is coinbase.com/token-sales, official Coinbase blog posts, or @Coinbase/@CoinbaseMarkets on X, corroborated by credible news sources.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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