Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
San Francisco 26.8%
Next is Chicago at 11.9%. The venues differ most on Philadelphia (Polymarket 3.1%, Kalshi 1%), a 2.0-point gap.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
2 of 32 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
San FranciscoArbPolymarket: “San Francisco 49ers”26.8%27.5%27¢ bid, 28¢ asklive, just now26%25¢ bid, 26¢ asklive, just now26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)San FranciscoArb26.8%Polymarket 27.5%live, just nowKalshi 26%live, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
San FranciscoArb
Polymarket: “San Francisco 49ers”
26.8%
27.5%
27¢ bid, 28¢ ask
live, just now
26%
25¢ bid, 26¢ ask
live, just now
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
San FranciscoArb
26.8%
Polymarket 27.5%live, just nowKalshi 26%live, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- San Francisco 49ers
- Price
- 27.5%
- As of
- Live feed, just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $41K
Kalshi
- Contract
- San Francisco
- Price
- 26%
- As of
- Live feed, just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $1.5M
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Buying on Kalshi at 26¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 100 bps before fees.
ChicagoPolymarket: “Chicago Bears”11.9%11%10¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 28s ago12%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 28s ago12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Chicago11.9%Polymarket 11%polled, 28s agoKalshi 12%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Chicago
Polymarket: “Chicago Bears”
11.9%
11%
10¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
12%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Chicago
11.9%
Polymarket 11%polled, 28s agoKalshi 12%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chicago Bears
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $43K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chicago
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $1.1M
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.
Los Angeles RPolymarket: “Los Angeles Rams”11.3%11.5%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 28s ago11%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 28s ago12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Los Angeles R11.3%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 11%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Los Angeles R
Polymarket: “Los Angeles Rams”
11.3%
11.5%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
11%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Los Angeles R
11.3%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 11%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Los Angeles Rams
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $38K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Los Angeles R
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $1.1M
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12¢.
MinnesotaArbPolymarket: “Minnesota Vikings”10.8%10.1%10¢ bid, 10.1¢ askpolled, 28s ago12%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 28s ago10.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $990 (9.90x)MinnesotaArb10.8%Polymarket 10.1%polled, 28s agoKalshi 12%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
MinnesotaArb
Polymarket: “Minnesota Vikings”
10.8%
10.1%
10¢ bid, 10.1¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
12%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
10.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $990 (9.90x)
MinnesotaArb
10.8%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 28s agoKalshi 12%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Minnesota Vikings
- Last price
- 10.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $990 (9.90x)
- Volume
- $1.9M
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $932K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Buying on Polymarket at 10.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 90 bps before fees.
SeattlePolymarket: “Seattle Seahawks”10.5%11.5%11¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 28s ago10%10¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 28s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Seattle10.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 10%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Seattle
Polymarket: “Seattle Seahawks”
10.5%
11.5%
11¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
10%
10¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Seattle
10.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 10%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Seattle Seahawks
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $20K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Seattle
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $972K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.
DetroitPolymarket: “Detroit Lions”7.9%7.4%6.9¢ bid, 7.8¢ askpolled, 28s ago8%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 28s ago7.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)Detroit7.9%Polymarket 7.4%polled, 28s agoKalshi 8%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Detroit
Polymarket: “Detroit Lions”
7.9%
7.4%
6.9¢ bid, 7.8¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
8%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
7.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Detroit
7.9%
Polymarket 7.4%polled, 28s agoKalshi 8%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Detroit Lions
- Last price
- 7.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,282 (12.8x)
- Volume
- $141K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Detroit
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $331K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7.8¢.
Green BayPolymarket: “Green Bay Packers”5.1%5%4.8¢ bid, 5.2¢ askpolled, 28s ago5%5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 28s ago5.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)Green Bay5.1%Polymarket 5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Green Bay
Polymarket: “Green Bay Packers”
5.1%
5%
4.8¢ bid, 5.2¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
5%
5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
5.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Green Bay
5.1%
Polymarket 5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Green Bay Packers
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,923 (19.2x)
- Volume
- $53K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Green Bay
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $421K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.2¢.
DallasPolymarket: “Dallas Cowboys”4.4%5%4.9¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 28s ago4%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 28s ago5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Dallas4.4%Polymarket 5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Dallas
Polymarket: “Dallas Cowboys”
4.4%
5%
4.9¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
4%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Dallas
4.4%
Polymarket 5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dallas Cowboys
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $931K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dallas
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1.4M
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.
CarolinaArbPolymarket: “Carolina Panthers”3.3%2.6%2.5¢ bid, 2.6¢ askpolled, 28s ago4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 28s ago2.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)CarolinaArb3.3%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 28s agoKalshi 4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
CarolinaArb
Polymarket: “Carolina Panthers”
3.3%
2.6%
2.5¢ bid, 2.6¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
2.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
CarolinaArb
3.3%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 28s agoKalshi 4%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Carolina Panthers
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,846 (38.5x)
- Volume
- $677K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carolina
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $721K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Buying on Polymarket at 2.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 40 bps before fees.
New York GArbPolymarket: “New York Giants”2.2%2.6%2.5¢ bid, 2.6¢ askpolled, 28s ago2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 28s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)New York GArb2.2%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 28s agoKalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
New York GArb
Polymarket: “New York Giants”
2.2%
2.6%
2.5¢ bid, 2.6¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
New York GArb
2.2%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 28s agoKalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- New York Giants
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,846 (38.5x)
- Volume
- $26K
Kalshi
- Contract
- New York G
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $1.1M
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 2.5¢ nets 50 bps before fees.
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
PhiladelphiaArbPolymarket: “Philadelphia Eagles”1.5%3.1%3¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 28s ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 28s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)PhiladelphiaArb1.5%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
PhiladelphiaArb
Polymarket: “Philadelphia Eagles”
1.5%
3.1%
3¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
PhiladelphiaArb
1.5%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $56K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Philadelphia
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $934K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.
AtlantaPolymarket: “Atlanta Falcons”1.2%1.6%1¢ bid, 2.1¢ askpolled, 28s ago1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 28s ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Atlanta1.2%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Atlanta
Polymarket: “Atlanta Falcons”
1.2%
1.6%
1¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Atlanta
1.2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Atlanta Falcons
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,762 (47.6x)
- Volume
- $186K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlanta
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $823K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
New OrleansPolymarket: “New Orleans Saints”1%0.9%0.6¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 28s ago1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 28s ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)New Orleans1%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
New Orleans
Polymarket: “New Orleans Saints”
1%
0.9%
0.6¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
New Orleans
1%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- New Orleans Saints
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $518K
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Orleans
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $744K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.
WashingtonPolymarket: “Washington Commanders”1%0.8%0.6¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 28s ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 28s ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Washington1%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Washington
Polymarket: “Washington Commanders”
1%
0.8%
0.6¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Washington
1%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Washington Commanders
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $166K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Washington
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $662K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Tampa BayPolymarket: “Tampa Bay Buccaneers”0.7%0.5%0.4¢ bid, 0.6¢ askpolled, 28s ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 28s ago0.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $16,667 (167x)Tampa Bay0.7%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Tampa Bay
Polymarket: “Tampa Bay Buccaneers”
0.7%
0.5%
0.4¢ bid, 0.6¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
0.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Tampa Bay
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $16,667 (167x)
- Volume
- $694K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tampa Bay
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $484K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
ArizonaPolymarket: “Arizona Cardinals”0.4%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 28s ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 28s ago0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Arizona0.4%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Arizona
Polymarket: “Arizona Cardinals”
0.4%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Arizona
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Arizona Cardinals
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $990K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arizona
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $120K
Partial parity
Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Philadelphia on Kalshi at 1¢, sell on Polymarket at 3¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Mostly the same bet: 4 differences
Where they differ
- Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
- Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
- Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
- Trading closes at different times: Jan 25, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 22, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: nfl.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
- Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
- Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
- Trading closes Jan 25, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 22, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- San Francisco
- Chicago
- Los Angeles R
Live prices for San Francisco
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "NFC Championship Winner". San Francisco leads at 26.8%. Next is Chicago at 11.9%. $19.8M has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 22, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More sports markets
See all sports markets- F1 Drivers' ChampionKimi Antonelli98%$204.6M traded
- 2027 Pro Football ChampionSan Francisco18%$194.5M traded
- Pro Baseball ChampionMilwaukee64.6%$133.7M traded
- College Football National Championship WinnerGeorgia17%$63.6M traded
- 2027 Pro Basketball ChampionOklahoma City25%$44.5M traded
- MVP Winner?Josh Allen27%$36.6M traded