The Prediction Markets

Niagara-on-the-Lake mayoral election winner?

Closes
Oct 26, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Jim Diodati 65.5%

Next is Erwin Wiens at 60.6%. The venues differ most on Andrea Kaiser (Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 29%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Jim Diodati
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jim Diodati
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Erwin Wiens
60.6%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erwin Wiens
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Erwin Wiens
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 59¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 62¢.

Andrea Kaiser
30.1%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrea Kaiser
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrea Kaiser
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 28¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 35¢.

Michael Lucid
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 19.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $521 (5.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Lucid
Last price
12.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.2¢
Sell Yes
6.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$521 (5.21x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Polymarket
Vaughn Goettler
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vaughn Goettler
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vaughn Goettler
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Paul Manning
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Manning
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket
Lori Lococo
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lori Lococo
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Kevin Martineau
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kevin Martineau
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Town of Niagara-on-the-Lake Clerk
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jim Diodati
  • Erwin Wiens
  • Andrea Kaiser

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Jim Diodati for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Niagara-on-the-Lake mayoral election winner?". Jim Diodati leads at 65.5%. Next is Erwin Wiens at 60.6%. $26K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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