The Prediction Markets

Nigerian Presidential Election Winner

Starts in 86 daysKickoff
Traded
$150K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Bola Tinubu 68.3%

Next is Peter Obi at 23.2%. The venues differ most on Bola Tinubu (Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 71%), a 3.5-point gap.

Bola Tinubu 68.3%Peter Obi 23.2%Kashim Shettima 4.1%Atiku Abubakar 3%Omoyele Sowore 0.7%2 others 0.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bola TinubuArb
68.3%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, just nowKalshi 71%polled, just nowBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bola Tinubu
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bola Tinubu
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 69¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Peter Obi
23.2%
Polymarket 24%polled, just nowKalshi 21%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Obi
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Obi
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 27¢.

Kashim Shettima
4.1%
Kalshi 4.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kashim Shettima
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Atiku Abubakar
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Atiku Abubakar
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Omoyele Sowore
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Omoyele Sowore
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rabiu Kwankwaso
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rabiu Kwankwaso
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rotimi Amaechi
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rotimi Amaechi
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Bola Tinubu on Polymarket at 69¢, sell on Kalshi at 70¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 17, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 28, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: inecnigeria.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Independent National Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Jan 17, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 28, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bola Tinubu
  • Peter Obi
  • Kashim Shettima

Live prices for Bola Tinubu

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nigerian Presidential Election Winner". Bola Tinubu leads at 68.3%. Next is Peter Obi at 23.2%. $150K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 17, 2027.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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