The Prediction Markets

Nigerian Senate election winner?

Closes
Feb 28, 2028, in 16 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

APC 76.1%

Next is PDP at 9.2%. The venues differ most on APC (Polymarket 80%, Kalshi 83%), a 3.0-point gap.

APC 76.1%PDP 9.2%ADC 6.8%NDC 3.9%Labour 3.7%2 others 0.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
APC
76.1%
Polymarket 80%(76.3% fair)polled, 28s agoKalshi 83%(75.5% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
APC
Last price
80%
Fair, margin removed
76.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
APC
Last price
83%
Fair, margin removed
75.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 81¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

PDPArb
9.2%
Polymarket 9.4%polled, 28s agoKalshi 11%(10% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
PDP
Last price
9.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.6¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$943 (9.43x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
PDP
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$945
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 40 bps before fees.

ADC
6.8%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $794 (7.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
ADC
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.6¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$794 (7.94x)
Volume
$699
Trade this on Polymarket
NDC
3.9%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
NDC
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Polymarket
Labour
3.7%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Labour
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
NNPP
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
NNPP
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Polymarket
LP
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
LP
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy PDP on Polymarket at 10.6¢, sell on Kalshi at 11¢ (40 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 17, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 28, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: inecnigeria.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Independent National Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Jan 17, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 28, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • APC
  • PDP
  • ADC

Live prices for APC

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nigerian Senate election winner?". APC leads at 76.1%. Next is PDP at 9.2%. $13K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 28, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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