The Prediction Markets

Nigerian Senate Election Winner

Closes
Jan 17, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

APC 75.6%

Next is PDP at 9.8%. The venues differ most on APC (Polymarket 80%, Kalshi 83%), a 3.0-point gap.

APC 75.6%PDP 9.8%ADC 6.7%NDC 3.8%Labour 3.7%2 others 0.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
APC
75.6%
Polymarket 80%(75.6% fair)polled, 3 min agoKalshi 83%(75.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
APC
Last price
80%
Fair, margin removed
75.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
APC
Last price
83%
Fair, margin removed
75.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 81¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

PDP
9.8%
Polymarket 10.3%(9.7% fair)polled, 3 min agoKalshi 11%(10% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
PDP
Last price
10.3%
Fair, margin removed
9.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12.5¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$800 (8.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
PDP
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$945
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12.5¢.

ADC
6.7%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $794 (7.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
ADC
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12.6¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$794 (7.94x)
Volume
$699
Trade this on Polymarket
NDC
3.8%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
NDC
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Polymarket
Labour
3.7%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Labour
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
LP
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
LP
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
NNPP
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
NNPP
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 17, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 28, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: inecnigeria.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Independent National Electoral Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Jan 17, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 28, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • APC
  • PDP
  • ADC

Live prices for APC

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nigerian Senate Election Winner". APC leads at 75.6%. Next is PDP at 9.8%. $13K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 17, 2027.

National Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Senate of Nigeria's National Assembly in this election. If the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Senate is not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose abbreviation as listed in the market options appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates elected under the specified party in the Senate. Seats will not be combined between parties on the basis of endorsements, alliances, coalitions, or other forms of political cooperation. Any changes in party affiliation or seat holdings after the election, including defections, floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, the results of this election are those declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at the conclusion of the election, including the results of any supplementary or rerun polls conducted to complete the declaration of results for constituencies initially declared inconclusive. Judicial outcomes after the declaration of results, including any election petition tribunal or appellate ruling that nullifies a result, substitutes a declared winner, or orders a fresh election, will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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