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What the markets expect
Ends before Round 3? 82.5%
Next is KO/TKO/DQ at 66%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Ends before Round 3?82.5%82.5%81¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed84¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $119 (1.19x)Ends before Round 3?82.5%Polymarket 82.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Ends before Round 3?
82.5%
82.5%
81¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
84¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Ends before Round 3?
82.5%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 3?
- Last price
- 82.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $187
KO/TKO/DQ66%Not listed66%56¢ bid, 66¢ askpolled, 2 min ago66¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $152 (1.52x)KO/TKO/DQ66%Kalshi 66%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
KO/TKO/DQ
66%
Not listed
66%
56¢ bid, 66¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
66¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $152 (1.52x)
KO/TKO/DQ
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- KO/TKO/DQ
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 66¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $152 (1.52x)
- Volume
- $1K
O/U 0.5 Rounds63.5%63.5%59¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed68¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $147 (1.47x)O/U 0.5 Rounds63.5%Polymarket 63.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
63.5%
63.5%
59¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
68¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
O/U 0.5 Rounds
63.5%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 63.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $4
Ends before Round 2?62.5%62.5%61¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Ends before Round 2?62.5%Polymarket 62.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Ends before Round 2?
62.5%
62.5%
61¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Ends before Round 2?
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ends before Round 2?
- Last price
- 62.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $39
KO/TKO/DQPolymarket: “Fight won by KO/TKO?”59.5%59.5%55¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)KO/TKO/DQ59.5%Polymarket 59.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
KO/TKO/DQ
Polymarket: “Fight won by KO/TKO?”
59.5%
59.5%
55¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
KO/TKO/DQ
59.5%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 59.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $520
Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO?55.5%55.5%55¢ bid, 56¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed56¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $179 (1.79x)Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO?55.5%Polymarket 55.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO?
55.5%
55.5%
55¢ bid, 56¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
56¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO?
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 55.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 56¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $179 (1.79x)
- Volume
- $90
Yakhyaev in Round 154.5%54.5%49¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed60¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Yakhyaev in Round 154.5%Polymarket 54.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Yakhyaev in Round 1
54.5%
54.5%
49¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
60¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Yakhyaev in Round 1
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yakhyaev in Round 1
- Last price
- 54.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $93
Fight won by submission?29.5%29.5%25¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed34¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Fight won by submission?29.5%Polymarket 29.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Fight won by submission?
29.5%
29.5%
25¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
34¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Fight won by submission?
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by submission?
- Last price
- 29.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $42
O/U 1.5 Rounds29.5%29.5%29¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)O/U 1.5 Rounds29.5%Polymarket 29.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
29.5%
29.5%
29¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
O/U 1.5 Rounds
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 1.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 29.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
Submission22%Not listed22%22¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 2 min ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Submission22%Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Submission
22%
Not listed
22%
22¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Submission
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Submission
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $40
Show 13 more outcomesHide 13 outcomes
Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev17.5%17.5%17¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev17.5%Polymarket 17.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
17.5%
17.5%
17¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
18¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev
- Last price
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $24K
O/U 2.5 Rounds17%17%12¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)O/U 2.5 Rounds17%Polymarket 17%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
17%
17%
12¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
O/U 2.5 Rounds
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- O/U 2.5 Rounds
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
Yakhyaev in Round 216.5%16.5%11¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Yakhyaev in Round 216.5%Polymarket 16.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Yakhyaev in Round 2
16.5%
16.5%
11¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Yakhyaev in Round 2
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yakhyaev in Round 2
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
Fight to Go the Distance?13.5%13.5%12¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Fight to Go the Distance?13.5%Polymarket 13.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
13.5%
13.5%
12¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Fight to Go the Distance?
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight to Go the Distance?
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $13
Decision or Draw11.5%11.5%6¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Decision or Draw11.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Decision or Draw
11.5%
11.5%
6¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Decision or Draw
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Decision or Draw
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Fight won by decision?11.5%11.5%6¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Fight won by decision?11.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Fight won by decision?
11.5%
11.5%
6¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Fight won by decision?
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Fight won by decision?
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Krylov to win by KO/TKO?9.5%9.5%6¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Krylov to win by KO/TKO?9.5%Polymarket 9.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Krylov to win by KO/TKO?
9.5%
9.5%
6¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Krylov to win by KO/TKO?
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Krylov to win by KO/TKO?
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Decision9%Not listed9%9¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 2 min ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Decision9%Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Decision
9%
Not listed
9%
9¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Decision
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Decision
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $40
Krylov in Round 18%8%3¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Krylov in Round 18%Polymarket 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Krylov in Round 1
8%
8%
3¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Krylov in Round 1
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Krylov in Round 1
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Krylov in Round 27%7%3¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed11¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Krylov in Round 27%Polymarket 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Krylov in Round 2
7%
7%
3¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
11¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Krylov in Round 2
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Krylov in Round 2
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
Yakhyaev in Round 35.5%5.5%3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Yakhyaev in Round 35.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Yakhyaev in Round 3
5.5%
5.5%
3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Yakhyaev in Round 3
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yakhyaev in Round 3
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Krylov in Round 35%5%3¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Krylov in Round 35%Polymarket 5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Krylov in Round 3
5%
5%
3¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Krylov in Round 3
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Krylov in Round 3
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Draw/No Contest1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 2 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Draw/No Contest1%Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Draw/No Contest
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Draw/No Contest
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $40
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Paramount+, Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Ends before Round 3?
- KO/TKO/DQ
- O/U 0.5 Rounds
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Ends before Round 3? for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev: Method of Finish". Ends before Round 3? leads at 82.5%. Next is KO/TKO/DQ at 66%. $26K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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