The Prediction Markets

Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

65,000-70,000 21%

Next is 55,000 at 16.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

65,000-70,000 21%55,000 16.1%70,000-75,000 13.9%60,000-65,000 12.9%55,000-60,000 11.8%3 others 24.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
65,000-70,000
21%
Polymarket 19.7%(21% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 38.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $259 (2.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
65,000-70,000
Last price
19.7%
Fair, margin removed
21%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
38.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$259 (2.59x)
Volume
$637
Trade this on Polymarket
55,000
16.1%
Polymarket 15%(16.1% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
55,000
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
16.1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
70,000-75,000
13.9%
Polymarket 13%(13.9% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
70,000-75,000
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
13.9%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
60,000-65,000
12.9%
Polymarket 12.1%(12.9% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 23.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $424 (4.24x)
Polymarket
Contract
60,000-65,000
Last price
12.1%
Fair, margin removed
12.9%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
23.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$424 (4.24x)
Volume
$777
Trade this on Polymarket
55,000-60,000
11.8%
Polymarket 11%(11.8% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
55,000-60,000
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
11.8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
75,000-80,000
11.7%
Polymarket 11%(11.7% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
75,000-80,000
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
11.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
85,000+
6.4%
Polymarket 6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
85,000+
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$677
Trade this on Polymarket
80,000-85,000
6.2%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000-85,000
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$584
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: finance.yahoo.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 65,000-70,000
  • 55,000
  • 70,000-75,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026". 65,000-70,000 leads at 21%. Next is 55,000 at 16.1%. $23K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for the Nikkei 225 (NI225) on the final trading day of December 2026, reported in JPY. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.”

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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