The Prediction Markets

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa

Starts in 2 h 13 minKickoff
Traded
$92K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Rybakina 91.6%

Next is Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 87.5%. The venues differ most on Rybakina (Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 92%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rybakina
91.6%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, just nowKalshi 92%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elena Rybakina
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 91¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 91¢.

Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 Winner
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
86%
Polymarket 86%polled, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 Winner
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, just nowBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Game Spread +/-3.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Match O/U 23.5
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Match O/U 21.5
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Match O/U 22.5
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Katarzyna Kawa
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Katarzyna Kawa
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$71K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: wtatennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: WTA
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rybakina
  • Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5

Live prices for Rybakina

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa". Rybakina leads at 91.6%. Next is Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Katarzyna Kawa Set 1 O/U 8.5 at 87.5%. $92K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Rybakina and Katarzyna Kawa in the Ningbo Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elena Rybakina' if Elena Rybakina advances against Katarzyna Kawa. This market will resolve to 'Katarzyna Kawa' if Katarzyna Kawa advances against Elena Rybakina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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