The Prediction Markets

Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova

Starts in 3 h 37 minKickoff
Traded
$12K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5 71%

Next is Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 53.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Match O/U 21.5
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Polymarket
Marie Bouzkova
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marie Bouzkova
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Game Spread +/-0.5
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 Winner
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 Winner
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fernandez
48.3%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 48%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Leylah Fernandez
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 48¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 48¢.

Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
47%
Polymarket 47%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Match O/U 22.5
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Match O/U 23.5
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$457
Trade this on Polymarket
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: wtatennis.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: WTA
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5
  • Marie Bouzkova

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova". Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5 leads at 71%. Next is Ningbo Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5 at 53.5%. $12K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Leylah Fernandez and Marie Bouzkova in the Ningbo Open, originally scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Leylah Fernandez' if Leylah Fernandez advances against Marie Bouzkova. This market will resolve to 'Marie Bouzkova' if Marie Bouzkova advances against Leylah Fernandez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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