The Prediction Markets

Nitto ATP Finals: Player to Qualify

Closes
Dec 7, 2026, in 44 days
Traded
$67K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Daniil Medvedev 96.3%

Next is Flavio Cobolli at 94.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Daniil Medvedev
96.3%
Polymarket 96.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 97.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniil Medvedev
Last price
96.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.4¢
Sell Yes
95.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Flavio Cobolli
94.7%
Polymarket 94.7%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 97.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Flavio Cobolli
Last price
94.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.3¢
Sell Yes
92.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arthur Fils
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arthur Fils
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Frances Tiafoe
87%
Polymarket 87%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Frances Tiafoe
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rafael Jodar
69.4%
Polymarket 69.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 72.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $138 (1.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rafael Jodar
Last price
69.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72.4¢
Sell Yes
66.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$138 (1.38x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Novak Djokovic
15.1%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Novak Djokovic
Last price
15.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex de Minaur
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex de Minaur
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Fritz
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Fritz
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jakub Mensik
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jakub Mensik
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket
Matteo Arnaldi
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matteo Arnaldi
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 25 more outcomes
Andrey Rublev
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrey Rublev
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Polymarket
Arthur Fery
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arthur Fery
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Ignacio Buse
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ignacio Buse
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
Valentin Vacherot
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valentin Vacherot
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Learner Tien
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Learner Tien
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Felix Auger-Aliassime
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jiri Lehecka
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jiri Lehecka
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tommy Paul
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tommy Paul
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Blockx
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Blockx
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ugo Humbert
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ugo Humbert
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Polymarket
Francisco Cerundolo
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Francisco Cerundolo
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Quentin Halys
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Quentin Halys
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Raphael Collignon
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphael Collignon
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Luciano Darderi
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luciano Darderi
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
Brandon Nakashima
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brandon Nakashima
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Casper Ruud
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Casper Ruud
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$581
Trade this on Polymarket
Mariano Navone
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariano Navone
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Polymarket
Stefanos Tsitsipas
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$215
Trade this on Polymarket
Alejandro Tabilo
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro Tabilo
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Bublik
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Bublik
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Polymarket
Joao Fonseca
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joao Fonseca
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Polymarket
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Polymarket
Lorenzo Musetti
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lorenzo Musetti
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$526
Trade this on Polymarket
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Polymarket
Zizou Bergs
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zizou Bergs
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$764
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Daniil Medvedev
  • Flavio Cobolli
  • Arthur Fils

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nitto ATP Finals: Player to Qualify". Daniil Medvedev leads at 96.3%. Next is Flavio Cobolli at 94.7%. $67K has traded across 35 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified player qualifies for the singles main draw of the 2026 Nitto ATP Finals, currently scheduled for November 15, 2026 to November 22, 2026, in Turin, Italy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A player is considered to have "qualified" if they are named to one of the eight (8) singles main-draw spots according to the official ATP source. If a player qualifies but withdraws before competing, they will still be considered to have "qualified" and this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond December 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the eight-player singles field has not been officially determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the ATP Tour (atptour.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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