The Prediction Markets

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

Closes
Apr 1, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$41K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.2%

Next is Donald Trump at 8.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
8.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Committee to Protect Journalists
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Committee to Protect Journalists
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Jimmy Lai
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jimmy Lai
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Polymarket
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Polymarket
Yulia Navalnaya
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yulia Navalnaya
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pope Leo XIV
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
UNRWA
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
UNRWA
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
Julian Assange
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julian Assange
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Elon Musk
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
International Court of Justice
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
International Court of Justice
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
António Guterres
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
António Guterres
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Doctors Without Borders
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Doctors Without Borders
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Polymarket
Greta Thunberg
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greta Thunberg
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$389
Trade this on Polymarket
International Criminal Court
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
International Criminal Court
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy
  • Donald Trump
  • Committee to Protect Journalists

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027". Volodymyr Zelenskyy leads at 9.2%. Next is Donald Trump at 8.5%. $41K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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