The Prediction Markets

North Carolina Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$206K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Cooper, 1+ pts 96.3%

Next is Cooper, 2+ pts at 93.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 30 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cooper, 1+ pts
96.3%
Kalshi 96.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 96.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 1+ pts
Last price
96.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.6¢
Sell Yes
96.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 2+ pts
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 2+ pts
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 3+ pts
92.5%
Kalshi 92.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 94.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 3+ pts
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.2¢
Sell Yes
92.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 5+ pts
90.9%
Kalshi 90.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 90.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 5+ pts
Last price
90.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90.9¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 7+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 7+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 9+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%live, just nowBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 9+ pts
Price
67%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 10+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 10+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 11+ pts
56%
Kalshi 56%live, just nowBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 11+ pts
Price
56%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 6+ pts
49.7%
Kalshi 49.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 6+ pts
Last price
49.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 4+ pts
49.7%
Kalshi 49.7%polled, just nowBest Yes 98.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 4+ pts
Last price
49.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 20 more outcomes
Cooper, 12+ pts
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 90.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 12+ pts
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90.5¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 8+ pts
43.8%
Kalshi 43.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 8+ pts
Last price
43.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 13+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 13+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 14+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 14+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 15+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 15+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 12-15%
27.4%
Polymarket 27.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $358 (3.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 12-15%
Last price
27.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27.9¢
Sell Yes
26.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$358 (3.58x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper, 19+ pts
24.3%
Kalshi 24.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 19+ pts
Last price
24.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 9-12%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 9-12%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper, 21+ pts
23.1%
Kalshi 23.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 21+ pts
Last price
23.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 18%+
20.8%
Polymarket 20.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $469 (4.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 18%+
Last price
20.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21.3¢
Sell Yes
20.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$469 (4.69x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper, 17+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 17+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 6-9%
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 6-9%
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper 15-18%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 15-18%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper 3-6%
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 3-6%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley, 3+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whatley, 3+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Whatley, 1+ pts
1.4%
Kalshi 1.4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whatley, 1+ pts
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 0-3%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 0-3%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 3-6%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 3-6%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$893
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 0-3%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 0-3%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 6%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 6%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cooper, 1+ pts
  • Cooper, 2+ pts
  • Cooper, 3+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Cooper, 1+ pts for this event.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina Senate margin of victory". Cooper, 1+ pts leads at 96.3%. Next is Cooper, 2+ pts at 93.5%. $206K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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