The Prediction Markets

North Carolina Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$190K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Cooper, 1+ pts 95%

Next is Cooper, 3+ pts at 92%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 23 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Cooper, 1+ pts
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 96.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 1+ pts
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.3¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 3+ pts
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 94.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 3+ pts
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.3¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 5+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 90.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 5+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90.7¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 7+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 7+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 9+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%live, just nowBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 9+ pts
Price
77%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 11+ pts
67%
Kalshi 67%live, just nowBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 11+ pts
Price
67%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 13+ pts
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 13+ pts
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 15+ pts
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 15+ pts
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 12-15%
27.4%
Polymarket 27.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $358 (3.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 12-15%
Last price
27.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27.9¢
Sell Yes
26.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$358 (3.58x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper 9-12%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 9-12%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 13 more outcomes
Cooper 18%+
22.7%
Polymarket 22.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 18%+
Last price
22.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper, 17+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 17+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper, 19+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 19+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 6-9%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 6-9%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper 15-18%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 15-18%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cooper, 21+ pts
5.4%
Kalshi 5.4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cooper, 21+ pts
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 3-6%
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 3-6%
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley, 3+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whatley, 3+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Whatley, 1+ pts
1.4%
Kalshi 1.4%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whatley, 1+ pts
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cooper 0-3%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cooper 0-3%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 3-6%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 3-6%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$893
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 0-3%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 0-3%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Whatley 6%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whatley 6%+
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$770
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Cooper, 1+ pts
  • Cooper, 3+ pts
  • Cooper, 5+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Cooper, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina Senate margin of victory". Cooper, 1+ pts leads at 95%. Next is Cooper, 3+ pts at 92%. $190K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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