The Prediction Markets

North Carolina's 11th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Ager, 1+ pts 74%

Next is Ager, 4+ pts at 61%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ager, 1+ pts
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ager, 1+ pts
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Kalshi
Ager, 4+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ager, 4+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Kalshi
Ager, 7+ pts
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ager, 7+ pts
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ager, 10+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ager, 10+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Kalshi
Ager, 13+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ager, 13+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 9-12%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 9-12%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
17.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6-9%
17.2%
Polymarket 17.2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 18.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $549 (5.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6-9%
Last price
17.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.2¢
Sell Yes
16.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$549 (5.49x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Balkcom, 2+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balkcom, 2+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Ager, 16+ pts
12.8%
Kalshi 12.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ager, 16+ pts
Last price
12.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 12 more outcomes
Democrat 3-6%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 12%+
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$362
Trade this on Polymarket
Balkcom, 8+ pts
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balkcom, 8+ pts
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Balkcom, 5+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balkcom, 5+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Balkcom, 11+ pts
4.7%
Kalshi 4.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balkcom, 11+ pts
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Balkcom, 14+ pts
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balkcom, 14+ pts
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Balkcom, 17+ pts
1.7%
Kalshi 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balkcom, 17+ pts
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 6-9%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 9-12%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 12%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ager, 1+ pts
  • Ager, 4+ pts
  • Ager, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Ager, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina's 11th District margin of victory". Ager, 1+ pts leads at 74%. Next is Ager, 4+ pts at 61%. $20K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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