The Prediction Markets

North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$87K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

Republican 0-3% 71.7%

Next is Smith, 1+ pts at 63%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
71.7%
Polymarket 71.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 77.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
71.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
77.2¢
Sell Yes
66.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Smith, 1+ pts
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 1+ pts
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
43.1%
Polymarket 43.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
43.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Murphy, 1+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Murphy, 1+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$408
Trade this on Kalshi
Murphy, 3+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Murphy, 3+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6%+
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Smith, 3+ pts
1.7%
Kalshi 1.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 3+ pts
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Murphy, 6+ pts
1.3%
Kalshi 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Murphy, 6+ pts
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
Murphy, 9+ pts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Murphy, 9+ pts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$968
Trade this on Kalshi
Murphy, 12+ pts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Murphy, 12+ pts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Murphy, 18+ pts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Murphy, 18+ pts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 6+ pts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 6+ pts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Smith, 9+ pts
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Smith, 9+ pts
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Murphy, 15+ pts
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Murphy, 15+ pts
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Murphy, 21+ pts
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Murphy, 21+ pts
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Murphy, 24+ pts
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
Murphy, 24+ pts
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 3-6%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-18%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18%+
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Republican 0-3%
  • Smith, 1+ pts
  • Republican 0-3%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Republican 0-3% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "North Carolina's 3rd District margin of victory". Republican 0-3% leads at 71.7%. Next is Smith, 1+ pts at 63%. $87K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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